New data-driven map uses live weather, water temperature modeling, and machine learning to help prevent fish loss
RICHARDSON, TX, UNITED STATES, February 12, 2026 /EINPresswire.com/ — Natural Waterscapes today announced the launch of its Data-Driven Pond & Lake Turnover Risk Index, a first-of-its-kind tool designed to help pond owners, lake managers, HOAs, municipalities, and fisheries professionals identify — and proactively respond to — dangerous turnover conditions before they lead to fish loss.
Unlike traditional “rule-of-thumb” guidance, the Natural Waterscapes Turnover Risk Index is powered by real-time weather data, real-time water temperature modeling, and machine-learning algorithms that continuously evaluate conditions across the United States. The result is a national, county-level risk map that updates automatically every six hours.
👉 View the Turnover Risk Index Map
Why Water Physics Matters: The 39.2°F Rule
Water has a unique physical property that makes it unlike most other substances: it reaches its maximum density at 39.2°F (4°C). As surface water cools toward this temperature, it becomes heavier and sinks, while colder water below 39.2°F becomes lighter and rises. This dynamic directly drives lake and pond mixing behavior. The density inversion is the fundamental reason turnover occurs, and it explains why rapid temperature drops, cold rain, or wind events can suddenly destabilize a stratified water body. Understanding when water temperatures approach this threshold is critical to predicting turnover risk, even if the exact moment of mixing can’t be forecasted to the minute.
Why Pond & Lake Turnover Is So Dangerous
Seasonal turnover events often triggered by rapid weather shifts, cold fronts, heavy rainfall, or wind can cause low-oxygen bottom water to rapidly mix into the upper water column. The result can be sudden oxygen crashes, hydrogen sulfide release, and catastrophic fish kills that occur with little warning.
“Turnover is one of the most misunderstood and underestimated risks in pond and lake management,” said Jonathan Klotz, President of Natural Waterscapes, MS Hydrology. “Most fish losses aren’t bad luck, they’re the result of physics, weather, and timing. If you understand the conditions that create turnover risk, you can often prevent the worst outcomes.”
How the Turnover Risk Index Works
The Natural Waterscapes Turnover Risk Index combines multiple live data streams and predictive modeling to assess risk at a county-by-county level, including:
• Real-time weather conditions (temperature swings, wind, rainfall, barometric pressure)
• Modeled water temperature dynamics tied to seasonal stratification
• Historical turnover patterns and outcomes
• Machine-learning models that improve risk detection as new data is observed
Each county is assigned a current turnover risk level, refreshed every six hours as conditions evolve.
“This isn’t about predicting an exact turnover event,” Klotz added. “It’s about identifying when the ingredients for turnover are lining up — and giving people time to act.”
Interactive, Actionable & Built for Real Decisions
Users can click directly into any county on the map to see:
• The specific conditions driving turnover risk
• Why risk is increasing, stable, or declining
• Early warning signs to watch for
• Clear, practical actions to reduce risk and protect fish populations
Recommendations may include guidance on aeration strategy, monitoring priorities, operational timing, and other mitigation steps appropriate for current conditions.
“Most tools stop at awareness,” said Klotz. “We built this to support decisions — not just alerts.”
Who This Is For
The Turnover Risk Index is designed for:
• Private pond owners
• Trophy fishery managers
• Lake associations & HOAs
• Golf courses
• Municipal stormwater ponds
• Fisheries professionals & consultants
Whether managing a backyard pond or a multi-acre lake, users gain situational awareness that simply didn’t exist at this scale before.
Raising the Bar for Water Management
As climate variability increases the frequency of rapid temperature swings and extreme weather, turnover risk is no longer a once-a-year concern. Natural Waterscapes built the Turnover Risk Index to shift pond and lake management from reactive response to predictive risk awareness.
“Our goal is fewer fish kills, healthier water, and smarter decisions,” said Klotz. “Data gives people leverage and leverage saves fisheries.”
Access the Turnover Risk Index
🔗 Explore the Pond & Lake Turnover Risk Index Map:
📍 Updated every 6 hours
📍 County-level granularity nationwide
About Natural Waterscapes
Natural Waterscapes is a national leader in science-based pond and lake management, specializing in water quality restoration, aeration systems, biological solutions, and data-driven decision tools. The company integrates field science, hydrology, and technology to help water bodies thrive not just recover.
🌐 https://www.naturalwaterscapes.com
Jonathan Klotz
Natural Waterscapes LLC
jon@naturalwaterscapes.com
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